Sunday, January 20, 2008

Don’t Write off Rudy

His late starting strategy means that the Republican hopeful’s poll ratings were bound to fall.

While some UK commentators have already started writing off Rudy Giuliani’s campaign for the Republican nomination, it’s far from over for the former Mayor of New York. Giuliani’s strategy was clear from the start; he would let the other candidates fight it out early on in the campaign while he concentrated on the big ticket states which go to the polls later in the campaign.

With none of the others able to build real momentum by winning two of out of two in Iowa and New Hampshire, neither Romney (who now has most delegates - see left) nor McCain (who is topping the national polls for the first time) can be said to be leading the charge.

Given the focus on the state by state races, it would be expected that Giuliani’s relative lack of profile would have a short-term effect on his national polling numbers, but those who write him off do so at their own peril. ‘Super Tuesday’ brings Florida, California and New Jersey to the polls, and so can still be a launchpad for this candidate. McCain’s stated lead in Florida is within the margin of error making the race neck and neck, while Giuliani’s local credentials must put him in the driving seat in New Jersey. Although McCain looks ahead in a close race in California, if Giuliani can win two out of these three significant states he’ll be up and running and may be able to put real pressure on the Huckabee and Romney campaigns.

There are four strong candidates still in the Republican contest with the vast majority of states still to choose their candidate. It’s not over yet for Giuliani.