Friday, May 2, 2008

From an election spectator

I’m currently in London, where I now go to take my orders ;) A few personal reflections about the election here today:
  1. I went to the bookies to put money on Boris and couldn’t do it. Partly because of the economics of the short odds, partly because of the moral implications of betting on someone you wouldn’t vote for. Will those who thought they’d vote for Boris when they woke up today face a similar dilemma? Is his vote weak?
  2. I put £20 on Ken to win. YouGov got the gap between SNP and Labour wrong by about 6% in last year’s Scottish election, and today predicted a similar gap between Boris and Ken. Given this, and the Ken lead shown in the other polls in the past week I think it will be within about 2% on first votes, so well worth a punt on Ken.
  3. Likely Labour voters – folk my age who have probably always voted for Ken – talked of their motivation today in terms of what a disaster Boris would be rather than how good Ken was/is/will be. Will the lack of positive motivation for Ken and Labour voters harm him and make a difference to voting?

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